Tropical Storm Francine advances through Louisiana and Mississippi, it will quickly weaken. The storm poses significant threats including flooding rainfall, storm surge, damaging winds, and potential tornadoes. Tropical Storm Francine is the first Atlantic storm to form since Ernesto about three weeks ago. For daily updates, consider subscribing to the Morning Brief email newsletter from The Weather Channel and its meteorologists.
Tropical Storm Francine continues to impact much of the South with dangerous storm surge, flooding rainfall, strong winds, and tornadoes as it moves inland through Louisiana and Mississippi. The storm made landfall in Terrebonne Parish on Wednesday evening as a Category 2 hurricane.
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Current Status
Tropical Storm Francine is now moving northeast through Louisiana and Mississippi as a tropical storm. Southern Louisiana, including New Orleans, experienced tropical storm conditions on Wednesday evening. The International Airport in New Orleans reported wind gusts of up to 78 mph as the storm passed through. A flash flood emergency was issued for New Orleans and LaPlace, Louisiana, where 5-7 inches of rain have accumulated along the Interstate-10 corridor. Flooding has affected vehicles and caused power outages in parts of the metro area. Southern Louisiana also reports flooding in places like Cocodrie and Dulac.
Earlier in the day, Eugene Island, Louisiana, experienced a wind gust of 105 mph, while Dulac recorded a gust of 97 mph. Offshore oil rigs reported wind gusts as high as 112 mph.
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Warnings and Watches
The map below indicates where tropical storm watches and warnings are currently active across the Gulf Coast.
(A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours.)
Forecast and Intensity
Tropical Storm Francine will spread strong winds and heavy rainfall across eastern Louisiana, parts of Mississippi, and Alabama overnight. Its effects will extend to other areas of the Southeast, reaching as far north as the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys through at least Friday, and possibly into the weekend as a non-tropical system.
Francine might become stationary in the mid-Mississippi Valley later this week. Here’s what to expect as the storm progresses inland.
(The red-shaded area indicates the possible path of the storm’s center. It’s important to remember that impacts, such as heavy rain and high surf, can extend beyond the forecast path.)
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Potential Impacts
Storm Surge
Life-threatening storm surge will continue to affect low-lying areas along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the night. An early Thursday morning high tide could exacerbate flooding. The National Hurricane Center predicts peak inundation of 5 to 8 feet in southern Louisiana, including Vermilion Bay, if the surge coincides with high tide. Flooding is also anticipated along the shores of Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas, with surges of 3 to 6 feet expected.
Follow local officials’ instructions if evacuation orders are issued.
Damaging Winds
Windy conditions will persist in parts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi through the night. These winds could cause widespread tree damage and power outages, which might last several days. Scattered power outages and downed trees are possible as far north as central Mississippi, western Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.
Flooding Rain
The heaviest rainfall from Tropical Storm Francine is forecasted for southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Rainfall amounts in these areas could reach 4 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches. Cities like New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Biloxi, Jackson, and Mobile have issued flood watches.
(Issued by the National Weather Service.)
Localized heavy rain from Tropical Storm Francine remnants will affect parts of the Southeast and could reach as far north as the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys through the weekend. Flooding is possible due to the storm becoming stationary in the mid-Mississippi Valley as part of a “Rex block” pattern, where a high-pressure system and a low-pressure system are too close to move the storm along.
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Possible Tornadoes
Landfalling tropical cyclones can generate tornadoes near and inland from their landfall point. An isolated tornado threat could develop Wednesday night in southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. This threat might continue Thursday in portions of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and possibly parts of northeast Mississippi and south-central Tennessee.
Tropical Storm Francine
Tropical Storm Francine became a tropical storm on Monday morning, marking the first Atlantic storm since Ernesto departed the North Atlantic Ocean on August 20. It intensified into the fourth hurricane of the 2024 season by Tuesday evening.
The storm made a glancing impact on parts of South Texas, with Brownsville reporting up to 7.5 inches of rain, leading to street flooding. Coastal flooding was also observed along the South Texas coast, including the road to the Starbase Spaceport south of South Padre Island.
(WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry notes that it’s been 30 years since the Atlantic Basin experienced the first full week of September without any active tropical cyclones.)
(Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University points out that the last time the Atlantic Basin went from August 13 to September 8 without any storms forming was in 1968.)
The hurricane made landfall in Terrebonne Parish, approximately 30 miles south-southwest of Morgan City, as a Category 2 storm after rapidly intensifying on Wednesday.
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